I was right! Well, I’m sure millions of people were right… we’ve all thought these things. Oil futures are undervalued. Oil prices will be going up — way up.

The latest news. Crude oil rallies to new record high of $97 a barrel.

A lot of the stuff in the article I wrote last month is sort of ridiculous, but at the time it was written, oil futures were undervalued, or so I said. When Bush took office, gas was at around $1.25 per gallon, and is now around $3.00 per gallon.

You’ll read about oil futures in the coming paragraphs. In this paragraph however, I’d like to simply mention that Peak Oilers are correct so far. I’d also like to ask a few questions based upon this truth-so-far. Could the rest of Peak Oilers’ predictions be correct? Are we going to be competing for oil and entering multiple wars around the world year after year? Will we soon be competing for water? What about our entire infrastructure that is built by and for oil? Supplies, products and food? Will the industry of tourism disappear for a short time in our future? Will all those global warming consequences soon be coming true?

Anyway… the following is what I wrote about peak oil last month:

First, I don’t believe the world will end, but listed here are reasons that a friend of mine believes that it will. Knowing that he believes these things, another statistically-based number of people probably believe the same thing. I think that this can (and might) be used to control the masses and energy policy.

The date is October 3rd of 2007 (I’m posting this a few days later). While writing this, I am going to assume that if something very bad doesn’t happen in the near future, we are going to be sold on the idea that something bad will happen by 2013. I’m going to connect only two ideas, so this is a very minimalistic approach. Bear with me (or bare with me if you’re not into the whole restrictive clothing thing).

At the time of writing this, here are the prices of the last settled trades for Crude Oil futures:
Nov 2007 — 80.33
Dec 2007 — 79.25
Jan 2008 — 78.28
Feb 2008 — 77.73
Mar 2008 — 76.96
Apr 2008 — 76.55

If I’m correct, December futures (and beyond) are undervalued. If I’m correct, the cost of crude oil will be above $80, and closer to $90 per barrel in December or January. What proof do I have? None. But I have made a killing on the markets in the last three years. Take my comments with a grain of salt, but I think if you want to make around $14 per share, place some buy options for April.

My reason for deducing that we are experiencing Peak Oil is irrelevant. What is relevant is that if the price of oil sky-rockets as much as it has in the last five years, the oil companies will fear change in the energy markets. Or, at the very least, they will want to control the rollover to alternative energies. Also, their support for 90+% of our nation’s politicians will create an environment that is conducive to un-intelligent actions taken by our leaders. My next comment is ridiculously speculative, so I must apologize, but one way to control energy policy (something that reaches into everybody’s pocketbooks) is to shock the public. If it is perceived that the cause for a sharp rise in the cost of oil is a disaster, people are more likely to attribute the rise in crude oil prices only to that disaster. People are then less likely to pressure their elected representatives to move toward alternative energy investment. The oil companies will make more money and give more money to politicians.

My Claim

THE WORLD IS NOT GOING TO END! But, there are people out there who will sell you this idea.

I have a friend who recently sold his home, purchased a cheap home in the middle of nowhere, is making moves toward living off the grid, and is ready for a coming doomsday. I think he’s crazy because I have more faith in people than he does. But, here are some outlining facts that people are hearing and reading that is riling them up:

1. The magnetic pole shift. Some are predicting that around 2012, magnetic north will flip. The disasters that will happen, from airplanes crashing, to solar flares having a heavier impact on the planet, are fear number one.

2. The Mayan calendar doesn’t go past 2012. Many crazies are saying that this is another reason to suspect an end-of-the-world disaster.

3. The bible predicts the worlds demise in 2012. Yes, people are crazy. Get enough of these theories together and you can create a huge shock in the world. This shock could be used to manipulate oil prices (or blame the rise in oil prices on disaster), declare war, and push legislation that would otherwise never have been implemented. From Daniel to Revelations, people could easily be manipulated.

4. Nibiru falls from the sky and destroys earth.

5. Financial markets will melt down in 2012.

6. I haven’t been able to find any information about this, but my friend also thinks that somewhere in the bible it is predicted that Israel will push it’s enemy (Palestine) into the sea in the year of the end of the world. He talks about a golden cow that will fulfill the prophesy. It really sounds made-up to me, but if any part of it is true, it seems as though people in power could use this idea to instill fear and further manipulate markets and government.

7. I haven’t linked to any of the conspiracies here, but there is an undercurrent out there which aligns the conspiracies behind 9/11 with the possible disappearance of nukes from the Air Force base in Minot, ND. I agree, there does need to be a real investigation of 9/11, not one headed by a Bush political hack. And if a nuke does go off, conspiracy theories will fly with more fury than they ever did after 9/11. In any case, it’s another reason used behind my friend’s recent move.

8. Technological Singularity. This one pisses me off. The reason? I believe the world will be a better place when we have super intelligence out there. It would be the antithesis of the Bush administration. T2 had it wrong. The Matrix had it wrong. Everybody is predicting the future with fear in mind. Grow up and relax.

9. The prophecies of Nostradamus, Merlin, the I Ching, Millerites, and Oracles. The same stuff that was brought up in 1999. I called you all nuts then, I’ll call you all nuts now.

10. Global Warming. Yes, there is a huge problem here. There is also a huge problem with clean drinking water, pollution, food availability, unprecedented mass-extinction, and any number of world problems related to global over-population. I hope we can solve these problems. But the end of the world? It’s funny to me that number ten is probably the most pressing, but it is not one that most end-of-the-worlders use when talking about the end of the world.

What does any of this have to do with oil?

I do think we’ve very very recently hit peak oil. Oil prices will rise and fall, as they normally do, but they will continuously rise until an alternative energy infrastructure is readily available. That availability won’t exist until real money is invested in it. That money won’t be invested until YOU require it to happen. You won’t demand it unless you need to (hell, we’re all busy, right?). If you need to demand it, but, at the same time, disaster, the possibility of disaster, wars, world war and any other number of bad things might happen, you’re not likely to get upset when your demands are met with deaf ears.

What should you do?

Quite simply, be ready. When something does happen, we need to push back, hard. Get ready to contact the producers of your local news. Contact all media outlets with calm and reasonable conversation. The intelligent among us will keep the crazies at bay and keep this world on track.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 6th, 2007 at 11:51 am and is filed under World-wide Art News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.