First, I don’t believe the world will end, but listed here are reasons that a friend of mine believes that it will. Knowing that he believes these things, another statistically-based number of people probably believe the same thing. I think that this can (and might) be used to control the masses and energy policy.
The date is October 3rd of 2007 (I’m posting this a few days later). While writing this, I am going to assume that if something very bad doesn’t happen in the near future, we are going to be sold on the idea that something bad will happen by 2013. I’m going to connect only two ideas, so this is a very minimalistic approach. Bear with me (or bare with me if you’re not into the whole restrictive clothing thing).
At the time of writing this, here are the prices of the last settled trades for Crude Oil futures:
Nov 2007 — 80.33
Dec 2007 — 79.25
Jan 2008 — 78.28
Feb 2008 — 77.73
Mar 2008 — 76.96
Apr 2008 — 76.55
If I’m correct, December futures (and beyond) are undervalued. If I’m correct, the cost of crude oil will be above $80, and closer to $90 per barrel in December or January. What proof do I have? None. But I have made a killing on the markets in the last three years. Take my comments with a grain of salt, but I think if you want to make around $14 per share, place some buy options for April.
My reason for deducing that we are experiencing Peak Oil is irrelevant. What is relevant is that if the price of oil sky-rockets as much as it has in the last five years, the oil companies will fear change in the energy markets. Or, at the very least, they will want to control the rollover to alternative energies. Also, their support for 90+% of our nation’s politicians will create an environment that is conducive to un-intelligent actions taken by our leaders. My next comment is ridiculously speculative, so I must apologize, but one way to control energy policy (something that reaches into everybody’s pocketbooks) is to shock the public. If it is perceived that the cause for a sharp rise in the cost of oil is a disaster, people are more likely to attribute the rise in crude oil prices only to that disaster. People are then less likely to pressure their elected representatives to move toward alternative energy investment. The oil companies will make more money and give more money to politicians.
My Claim
THE WORLD IS NOT GOING TO END! But, there are people out there who will sell you this idea.
I have a friend who recently sold his home, purchased a cheap home in the middle of nowhere, is making moves toward living off the grid, and is ready for a coming doomsday. I think he’s crazy because I have more faith in people than he does. But, here are some outlining facts that people are hearing and reading that is riling them up:
1. The magnetic pole shift. Some are predicting that around 2012, magnetic north will flip. The disasters that will happen, from airplanes crashing, to solar flares having a heavier impact on the planet, are fear number one.
3. The bible predicts the worlds demise in 2012. Yes, people are crazy. Get enough of these theories together and you can create a huge shock in the world. This shock could be used to manipulate oil prices (or blame the rise in oil prices on disaster), declare war, and push legislation that would otherwise never have been implemented. From Daniel to Revelations, people could easily be manipulated.
6. I haven’t been able to find any information about this, but my friend also thinks that somewhere in the bible it is predicted that Israel will push it’s enemy (Palestine) into the sea in the year of the end of the world. He talks about a golden cow that will fulfill the prophesy. It really sounds made-up to me, but if any part of it is true, it seems as though people in power could use this idea to instill fear and further manipulate markets and government.
7. I haven’t linked to any of the conspiracies here, but there is an undercurrent out there which aligns the conspiracies behind 9/11 with the possible disappearance of nukes from the Air Force base in Minot, ND. I agree, there does need to be a real investigation of 9/11, not one headed by a Bush political hack. And if a nuke does go off, conspiracy theories will fly with more fury than they ever did after 9/11. In any case, it’s another reason used behind my friend’s recent move.
8. Technological Singularity. This one pisses me off. The reason? I believe the world will be a better place when we have super intelligence out there. It would be the antithesis of the Bush administration. T2 had it wrong. The Matrix had it wrong. Everybody is predicting the future with fear in mind. Grow up and relax.
9. The prophecies of Nostradamus, Merlin, the I Ching, Millerites, and Oracles. The same stuff that was brought up in 1999. I called you all nuts then, I’ll call you all nuts now.
10. Global Warming. Yes, there is a huge problem here. There is also a huge problem with clean drinking water, pollution, food availability, unprecedented mass-extinction, and any number of world problems related to global over-population. I hope we can solve these problems. But the end of the world? It’s funny to me that number ten is probably the most pressing, but it is not one that most end-of-the-worlders use when talking about the end of the world.
What does any of this have to do with oil?
I do think we’ve very very recently hit peak oil. Oil prices will rise and fall, as they normally do, but they will continuously rise until an alternative energy infrastructure is readily available. That availability won’t exist until real money is invested in it. That money won’t be invested until YOU require it to happen. You won’t demand it unless you need to (hell, we’re all busy, right?). If you need to demand it, but, at the same time, disaster, the possibility of disaster, wars, world war and any other number of bad things might happen, you’re not likely to get upset when your demands are met with deaf ears.
What should you do?
Quite simply, be ready. When something does happen, we need to push back, hard. Get ready to contact the producers of your local news. Contact all media outlets with calm and reasonable conversation. The intelligent among us will keep the crazies at bay and keep this world on track.
I’m not a writer. I’m an art dealer. But, the more I see senseless advertising masqueraded as news, the more I think that I should start making some career moves. ABC must have a clueless technology news team.
Earth to ABC: Get some fresh blood in your organization.
I realize that some people on the board of Apple are the same people on the boards of other companies in this list, but here are some examples of what ABC believes will change the world: the Apple iPhone, the Nintendo wii, (a page that can only be described as an advertisement for Visio LCD televisions), HD Movies, mobile cell phone payments, Google apps, “rough and tumble gadgets,” and better solar power. The list was ridiculous.
Instead of giving ABC too much hell, I think I’ll simply suggest a better and more potentially world-changing list.
Brain-Computer Interfaces
Brain-Computer Interface isn’t a new idea, but is already a reality. Imagine walking into any room in your house and turning on the lights with your mind bullets. The applications would be endless, one of which would make the wii (on ABC’s list) seem like an 8-bit, mustached plumber fighting a dancing gorilla by way of prance-leaping.
Remote computing.
Last year Jade Integration introduced the Jack PC. It is a very small, in-wall-mounted computer. If remote computing takes hold, it is very possible that a majority of future computers will primarily be an network and display device used to log users into their WebOS Workstation. Robust WebOS sites are popping up all the time (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10). ABC listed Google Apps as something that will change the world. Yes, Google will be a part of this computing paradigm shift, but only a part.
Smarter than human technologies.
A.I. enthusiasts seem chit-chat about this sort of thing regularly. The idea is that there will someday soon be an intelligence explosion. Genetic engineering for the modification of the human brain, infinitely fast super computing, the development of smart network technologies, or the augmentation of a brain with any number of other technologies are all heading in the same direction: more intelligence. When some technology emerges that results in a smarter-than-human technology, it will have the capacity to create an even smarter thing or being, and so on. This intelligence explosion will create a world in which we are unable to predict what will happen. If anything will change the world, it is a smarter-than-human technology.
Breakthroughs in Aging and Genetic Engineering.
The only thing I can really add to this conversation, that maybe hasn’t been discussed much in the world today, is the effect of a population boom. There are positive economic facets, and many negative ones: global warming, peak oil, not to mention the effects of over-population on the psyche of normal people. Until we develop some of the other technologies in this list, some of the potential world changes brought by an even greater population explosion are almost as unpredictable as technological singularity.
Advanced Energy Storage and Wireless Energy Transfer
If the capacitors of tomorrow will be as efficient as people predict, so much of our would would change. The speed with which and the methods we use to fill ‘er up, the price of energy, the methods we use to manage small energy grids in far-away locales, the ways and methods used to charge wireless devices, everything will change. The world of tomorrow will be much more efficient. Add to that the amazing developments in wireless energy transfer and these world changing technologies will make the world of tomorrow a vastly different place.
Web2.0, Web3.0, the media and net neutrality.
To find technologies that will change the world, you really only need to go as far as your computer. The ease with which ideas and information can be moved from one person to another is mind-blowing compared to what it was a decade or two ago. When something unjust happens to one of us, more are learning about it more quickly. The media is changing. Control is being taken away from the few and is being given to the many. Government is changing. Relationships are changing. Everything is changing, right now. The free collaboration for a better world and better inexpensive products (Linux, for example) is taking a real hold, right now.
Data storage with no moving parts.
One of the items on ABC’s list is “Rough and Tumble Gadgets.” To me, the success of this technology will depend upon the true world-changing technology in question, namely, data storage devices with no moving parts. Give me one of those IBM notebooks that claim to be indestructible and I’ll break it in a minute. All it would take is a couple of drop-kicks while it is booting and its hard drive will crash. Carputers that can do everything your computer does, satelite radio devices that can store many Gigabytes of streaming music, complex and small devices that can do and store anything you can imagine will only be affordable when localized data storage can be accomplished without moving parts. Right now, you can purchase a 96GB IDE Flash Hard Drive for about $10,000. The same drive with spinning metal platters is about $50, so we’re a few short years from this revolution.
Wireless technologies and smarter devices.
ABC listed the iPhone. What? How will this change the world? While ABC is wrong, they bring about a great point. Our ‘phone’ is getting smarter. I long for the day that my phone will be my fall-to web browser, the key to my car and home, and my wallet. RFID, a fantastic and scary technology, has grown by leaps and bounds. Other technologies already listed here are pushing the mobile phone to new bounds. In a few short years, our phones will be incredible devices that put the iPhone to shame.
Energy alternatives. Period.
If there were a cheaper energy source than coal and oil, everything would change: the internal combustion engine would disappear,
Some of the technologies in this list, along with this one, might create a world where the energy grid changes significantly. Imagine all homes being energy sources that mitigate energy back into the grid with very few, if any, power plants. Imagine all travel infrastructures being powered with something other than oil-derived products. When global production of oil falls into terminal decline (which some believe is happening right now), the world will very quickly change. Peak oilers predict that oil production decline will result in mass starvation, the twisting of governments that have large oil reserves, wars between first-world countries that need oil in the current global economy, global depression and mass immigration. Energy alternatives will change the world.
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology breakthroughs will bring a new generation of smaller, faster and more innovative products. There is already a ‘first generation’ of Nano-products in use today.
These include titanium dioxide nanoparticles in sunscreen, cosmetics and some food products; silver nanoparticles in food packaging, clothing, disinfectants and household appliances; zinc oxide nanoparticles in sunscreens and cosmetics, surface coatings, paints and outdoor furniture varnishes; and cerium oxide nanoparticles as a fuel catalyst. (wikipedia)
Magnetic Refrigeration.
There could be huge changes to the way your kitchen will keep food cold, the way your electric car will cool and heat your cab, the way your house will be heated and cooled. A lab in Denmark recently created a magnetic refrigerator that uses over 60% less energy than conventional refrigerators. In the late 1990s, in much of Europe, citizens were required to get rid of their old refrigerators in exchange for energy efficient refrigerators. The Europeans knew how important energy efficient refrigeration was and is.
Super-high-speed internet.
It was about eight years ago that I had heard of IPv6. Around the same time, Lucent technologies had announced a 10 Terabit per second router. Maybe these technologies will contribute to a super-high-speed internet, or maybe it will be the web applications themselves that intelligently route traffic that will speed up people’s internet connections. Whatever the technology that increases the speed of node connections, it will create a world change that is already happening. The ways in which we watch, hear and read all media is going through change. Video and audio compression will have the freedom to change for the purpose of HD video viewing equipment and better audio systems. Anything and everything in our lives, from the information that we get, to the information that is mitigated through all devices in our home, will change with faster internet connections.
I should preface this article with a couple of points.
1) I listen to both conservative and liberal talk radio. I listen to a lot of talk shows. None regularly, but I think I have a good generalized idea about how most of the popular talk show hosts operate.
2) Are you a conservative or liberal? Have you ever tried calling in to a radio show from the other side? There are two paradigms for handling the other side on the radio dial: Yesterday on Rush someone disagreed with him and Rush’s response was to cut the guy off and speak negatively about that person while he wasn’t around to defend himself. I suppose this gets him ratings. The opposite is true for Air America’s Thom Hartmann show: if you call in to disagree, you are queued up next and are most important on the show. He doesn’t talk negatively about you if you disagree and won’t put words in your mouth if you’re not around to defend yourself. The same is absolutely not true for at least 9 of the 10 conservative talk show hosts I listen to throughout any given week. The idea and purpose seems to be what Ann Coulter talks about in her books but never does: Elevating the discourse.
3) Given number one and because of number two, The Thom Hartmann Show is my favorite talk radio show.
So, to illustrate the difference between liberal talk, at least the type that I prefer, and conservative talk, at least the type that is most popular, I am going to show you seven audio clips that illustrate how Thom speaks with guests with whom he disagrees. If I were to choose one to listen to, I’d listen to the first two. They’re all pretty decent though.
Al Parinello on the Thom Hartmann show. The last two minutes are pretty intense. This really is a fundamental difference between Republicans and Democrats that does not result in talking negatively about the other side.
Phil Kerpe on the Thom Hartmann show. About 1/2 way through there is a great quote: “Phil, this is not Fox News and our goal isn’t to shout over one another.”
The most fantastic point Thom made is one that is never brought up. The caller tried to say that we should cut the capital gains tax because every time there has been a cut the government has collected way more in capital gains tax shortly after the cut. So, the caller is saying with a lower capital gains tax the government would always collect more revenue from capital gains tax. Well, first of all, am I really supposed to believe this guys wants the government to collect more in tax - I mean really that argument drives me batty every time I hear it. These dudes don’t want the government to have more taxes. But where Thom got him and it shows he knows his shit is when he said that the tax receipts only increased for a very short period and then leveled off. This is EXACTLY correct and all the data supports it. The fact is the gov’t collects more in gains tax the next year and then the collections go down dramatically and eventually below previous collections. This is because any smart person is going to dump a gain when they can pay the lowest possible tax. Capital gains are incredibly sensitive to rate because you can control when you sell. When gains taxes go down or even when there is talk of them going down we get so much crap at the CPA firm telling us to get our clients ready to sell - you wouldn’t believe it. It was a fantastic point that I have only heard brought up one other time when the discussion regarded gains. Thom is good.
